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Midterm elections are underway with primary races in all 50 states through September and leading to the general election on November 8th. These elections will determine which party will hold power in Congress for the next two years. This year, many seats are up for grabs, including all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, and 36 of 50 governorships. Stakes are high, with only several seats deciding whether Democrats will maintain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could shift power in the 50-50 Senate. Noteworthy for this election cycle is the possibility that the Republican party may take control of both the House and the Senate, which would greatly affect the second half of President Biden’s term, as well as set the stage to see if former President Donald Trump might be re-elected. Politico and the Cook Report that both the Senate and House will lean Republican, while governorships will lean Democratic.
Both Cook and Politico predict the GOP will narrowly win the Senate races. Of the 35 Senate houses up for grabs, 21 are controlled by Republicans. Currently, Democrats control 48
seats and Republicans control 50. The Cook Report argues 19 states are likely or leaning Republican, 11 are likely or leaning Democratic, and 5 are tossups. Politico has identified 6 key toss-up states to keep an eye out for that could shift the tide of the election: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. The Republican party has identified 4 target states: Arizona, Georgia,
Nevada, and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, the Democratic party is focusing on 3 states that voted for Biden in the 2020 presidential election, but are currently held by Republicans: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. It is expected that New Hampshire will lean Democratic and North Carolina will lean Republican. The GOP only needs to net one seat to gain control of the Senate. And while they are expected to succeed in this task, out of the 6 states listed above, Republicans only have an incumbent in one of them.
The House is also predicted to lean in the Republican party’s favor. Currently, Democrats hold 221 House seats, very narrowly holding a majority held at the 218 line, while Republicans have 209 seats, with 5 vacancies. Politico predicts that 194 seats are strong, likely, or lean Democratic, while 211 are strong, likely, or lean Republican, leaving 28 states as toss-ups. The Cook Report predicts similar figures, with 209 seats likely or leaning Republican, 187 likely or leaning Democratic, and 33 toss-up states. 9 key districts are identified as holding significance in this race, including California’s 27 District, Iowa’s 3rd District, Maine’s 2nd District, Michigan’s 7th District, Nebraska’s 2nd District, Ohio’s 1st District, Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Texas 15th District, and Virginia’s 7th District. Note: the 2022 elections will be different than 2020 due to redistricting. Gerrymandering remains abundant for both parties, with Republicans holding a slight advantage in the process.
36 of the 50 states will elect governors this year, with the Democratic party on the defensive to protect swing states won in 2018. The Cook Report details that 16 states are likely or leaning Republican, while 14 states are likely or leaning Democrat. The 6 key races to keep an eye out for include Arizona, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan. The GOP is focusing on winning Kansas and Nevada (both tossups) and Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania (all slightly leaning Democratic). The Democratic Party is focusing on Massachusetts and Maine, which both have powerful Republican leaders leaving office and are both leaning Democratic.
As of today, President Joe Biden has a 56% disapproval rate with only a 39% approval. This is a significant drop from his 53% approval and 36% disapproval on January 23, 2021. And the Economist cites a generic ballot poll wherein 42% are leaning Democrat, while 46% lean
Republican. They also did a poll on former President Trump stating that 54% find him unfavorable, versus 42% favorable. Moreover, looking at the direction of the country, Real Clear Politics shows that 26% believe we are going in the right direction as a country, while 74% say we are going in the wrong direction. With Biden’s disapproval rates rising and Americans’ growing concern that the country is headed in the wrong direction, this midterm election will be crucial in seeing who will be dominating the House and Senate. Below is overall polling for the Senate, House, Governors, and Presidential approval by Real Clear Politics.
In 2018, the House continued the trend of the Democrats performing strongly in midterm elections. The Democrats ended up winning 235 versus the Republicans 199. And the Governors’ election required 26 Republican Governors to hold the majority. And the Democratic party fell short, winning 23 spots versus the Republicans’ 27.
In the 2018 midterm election, in the Senate, it was projected that Democrats had a 1 in 5 chance of winning control (19.1%), while Republicans had a 4 out of 5 chance (80.9%). There were 35 seats up for election—the Republicans had 42 seats not up for election, and the Democrats 23 seats. This polling—along with the fact that Republicans already had more seats secured—made it nearly impossible for Democrats to take control of the Senate. And voters put in 47 Democrats to 53 Republicans in the Senate. Finally, note below previous polls reminding us of sharp contrasts between Republican and Democratic voters in 2016 and 2020.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/2022-midterm-elections
https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate